Bitcoin Trading Volume Chart - Bitcoin Visuals

The Four Horsemen - Signs of Incoming Crashes, and things.

Hey y'all! I'm going to keep this brief, but I was asked by Mr. October to post this, since I briefly described this on a discord we're both in. I do a ton of market analysis, mostly on alternative data, so I don't have cool superpowers potentially, but I do fancy myself a good trendspotter.
I wanted to share what I call my Four Horseman metric in brief, and I will fill it in more later when I get back/free from the clutches of homework.
The Four Horsemen:
  1. Rapid plunge in BTC/USD - This is an interesting metric, and makes sense if you understand that BTC has evolved from a hedge to a speculation play, which is why it arguably moves in lockstep with SPY most days. However, an interesting property I and many others have noticed is BTC seems to be a leading indicator of market movements, and rapid climbs/plunges tend to signal an incoming correction. See the chart on September 2nd, 2020 for an example.
  2. NOPE_MAD >= 3 End of Day: NOPE, or Net Option Pricing Effect, in principle looks at how dominant options flow trading volume is on the market compared to the more conventional shares volume. When the NOPE_MAD (median absolute deviation) compared to the previous 30 days is 3 deviations higher than normal, this means a red day the next day about 88% of the time (backtested to Mar 2019). You can check NOPE_MAD intraday here - https://thenope.info/nope/default/charts/SPY/2020-10-13 (the URL changes per day, so tomorrow will be 2020-10-14)
  3. The VIX rising with SPY - This usually is part of the parabolic phase, and means a metric fuck ton of calls are being written, which is pushing up option prices across the board. Usually VIX is a measure of downies-volatility, so when it and SPY both go up, it's a Very Bad Thing. Also see September 2nd, 2020.
  4. Small Tech/Caps Leading Big Tech/Caps - This is a more interesting metric, and only makes sense when you understand what causes a Minsky Moment style correction (irrational exuberance). In a stable market, big caps tend to act as a source of strength/safe harbor, and when small caps are leading, this tends to signal intense bull mania, which usually precedes a correction.
Honorable Mentions:
  1. Microsoft going up parabolically - Microsoft is our favorite boomer stock for a reason - it is much more stable than AMZN or AAPL, and doesn't like large movements. I noticed anecdotally this year that right before all the big tech corrections (3-5 days out) MSFT goes up exponentially, often more than the rest of the market, because smart money is looking for safe harbor.
I'd be happy to answer any questions later!

Edit: Wanted to add some stuff given the comments below.
  1. I did not write this to predict a crash based on today's behavior, but to generally inform about a metric I use to detect Minsky Moment style crashes. For more info on that - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment
  2. Lots of these indicators are new, and due in large part due to the relative fuckiness of the current market. Bitcoin and SPY did not track until this year, and I only noticed the Microsoft effect I mentioned since about 6/5 onwards. This likely also happens in other boomesafe stocks, but MSFT is by far my largest active trading position, hence why I noticed it.
  3. I will be adding a post soon specifically dedicated to the interpretation of NOPE and NOPE_MAD.
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October 27th | Templar Trading Daily Watchlist

$MARA + $RIOT: TA Play. Both MARA & RIOT have been in a consistent uptrend since the 7th of this month. The cryptocurrency sector as a whole has been hot, with bitcoin recently passing $13k, Jerome Powell discussing the possibility of adapting cryptocurrency in government, and paypal recently announcing the adaptation of cryptocurrency. All of these recent events have played a crucial part in the run both of these stocks have had.
What I really love about the current pattern of both these stocks is how consistently the bounce off the 50-day moving average. For $MARA, we saw this bounce on both the 7th and the 16th of this months, and as of close today we are once again hitting the 50ma support level. If we stay above this $2.54 level in tomorrow’s pre-market, there is a good chance we could see this bounce again.
$RIOT has almost the exact same pattern, bouncing off the 50-day moving average on both the 8th and the 19th of this month. We tested the 50ma today ($3.62/share) so if the pattern holds up, we could see a stronger up-trend going into the open tomorrow.
$MARA
$RIOT
$CREX:
TA Play. Creative Realities Inc. has had a rough couple of months, starting back on August 14th where they reported earnings which resulted in the stock tumbling for the next few weeks. We seem to have found heavy support around the $1.00 range, and we have been consolidating between $1 - $1.10 since the beginning of September. I like that the stock has fallen below the $1 support only once in the past few weeks, and it was only for a couple trading days. I like to scoop up these beaten down stocks and wait for the PR to bring them back to previous levels. Two great examples of this are $ADTX and $GRIL. Both found consolidation and popped on news. I know very little about this company, but I will be accumulating shares in my loading zone of < $1.05 and in the meantime research what might push this stock to previous highs. Swing play.
Bottomed out play. Clear support zone
$ISIG:
Insignia Systems Inc. shares are trading higher as of yesterday after-hours, running from .80c to $1.27/share, and has continued its run this morning. The stock is running off absolutely no news, so be ready to play this like a momentum stock. Looking for scalp-able volume at open, will not enter this pre-market as it has already begun falling from its high of $1.69 this morning.
Pre-Market Runner
$JAKK:
Today, JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (NASDAQ:JAKK) announced it will announce third quarter 2020 financial results on Monday, November 2, 2020 after the close of the stock market. The Company will also hold a teleconference and webcast to discuss the results, and may also discuss future plans and prospects. Jakks Pacific has been on a consistent downward trend since late June, but this low float stock moves quickly and sporadically with news. Looking at the 180d 4hr graph, we can see the stock began consolidating on September 1st, and for the most part the stock has stayed well above $3.75. As of October 5th, JAKK started a clear uptrend which was ironically spurred by a rogue Ryan Seacrest tweet praising the company’s toy lines. After the initial spike to nearly $6, Jakk settled and has now found support on the 50 day moving average which is quickly approaching the 200 day ma. Will be looking for an entry in the $4.20’s, I think the stock is in a good place to get a starter swing position, assuming it can hold above the 50 ma.
Bottomed out + MA cross
$DSS: Document Security Systems (NYSE:DSS) shares are trading higher on Monday after the company reported third-quarter EPS and sales results up from last year.
Document Security Systems operates in the security and commercial printing, packaging and plastic ID markets. The company develops, markets, manufactures and sells paper and plastic products designed to protect valuable information from unauthorized scanning, copying, and digital imaging.
Document Security Systems shares traded up 27.72% to $5.16 on Monday at the time of publication. The stock has a 52-week high of $15.60 and a 52-week low of $3.68. Up nearly two dollars from Monday’s open, will watch to see if the up-trend continues.
https://preview.redd.it/bvfiwm80gmv51.png?width=1602&format=png&auto=webp&s=878f1a57740cd800809b282f23db92f310c8e2f9
$RCON: Incredibly similar chart to $JAKK, though the 50ma has clearly crossed through the 200ma. I personally would wait for the both moving averages to curl a bit more. During June and August the stock found a clear bottom just above $1.10. The stock did slip below these levels during most of September, but has since been on an uptrend using the 50ma as a support. I personally like the setup on JAKK better but this is also a swing opportunity.
Trending up, 50ma support.
Never forget to do your own DD; remember: For all you know, all the stocks that I mention here will dip 90% tomorrow; Do your own DD, I'm not some magic fairy. Trading will never come this easy to you. If all the stocks on here went up, I'd be chilling on my own Island.
This is a watchlist, not a buy list.
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October 20th | Templar Trading Daily Watchlist

$TLRY:
Shares of cannabis companies have begun to trade higher in anticipation of the upcoming 2020 presidential election. Vice President on numerous occasions has indicated that the Biden administration would work towards decriminalization of marijuana.
On the daily chart, the 50ma just crossed the 200ma, and it looks like the stock has found the 200ma as it’s new support. We missed out on an extremely clean run yesterday, from $5.55 - $6.64. With the election approaching quickly, we could potentially see this stock go for a multi-day run. Swing potential until the election.
https://preview.redd.it/ckt71z63f8u51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=3a47da18a59229ccd7d63b831715a89d48a7615d
$ACER:
On October 13-15th, Acer Therapeutics management provided a virtual corporate overview at the BIO Investor Forum Digital. Acer has had a rough couple of months as they missed earnings back on August 13th, which resulted in the stock tumbling all the way down to $2.21/share from the high of $5.62/share. Although earnings were considerably missed, a 50% reaction seems excessive. Chart setup here is incredibly clean. Acer bottomed out around the $2.20’s, and is now using the 50ma as support. Bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart back on October 15th. Huge gap to fill. Swing play.

https://preview.redd.it/v45klrh5f8u51.png?width=1608&format=png&auto=webp&s=33b72a834231a7cbe541511bb0a42fdab5c271b3
$ACOR:
Pre-market runner of the day, Acorda Therapeutics is entitled to receive 15 million milestone payment from Biogen. This news was received in yesterday's after-hours session, and continued to rise and gap up this morning. We know that pre-market runners as of late have had potential to make a second break during the market open, so I will be adding this to my watchlist to monitor volume throughout the day. Scalp/day trade idea.

https://preview.redd.it/ph84p966f8u51.png?width=1607&format=png&auto=webp&s=eafa9ec1236cd3973236ebed3970de9d026a94e2
$MARA & $RIOT:
Lots of people in the crypto community are talking about the bullish sentiment of Bitcoin as of late. We know from past experiences that both RIOT & MARA are direct sympathy plays, and the charts support this thesis. For MARA, 50ma just crossed over the 200ma, and we saw a bullish engulfing candle on the 4hr chart yesterday morning. Possible swing potential.

https://preview.redd.it/uuaybz27f8u51.png?width=1606&format=png&auto=webp&s=7cdca782b39bf493b225909e48c939cf9959f744
Never forget to do your own DD; remember: For all you know, all the stocks that I mention here will dip 90% tomorrow; Do your own DD, I'm not some magic fairy. Trading will never come this easy to you. If all the stocks on here went up, I'd be chilling on my own Island.
submitted by itsgoggles to pennystocks [link] [comments]

HOG Wild

For Trading October 28th
MSFT BEATS, HOG RIDES HIGHER
CAT, MMM, PFE & LLY DISAPPOINT
COVID, COVID, COVID!
Today’s market was a split affair right from the pre-market through to the late markets. The DJIA was down on the beat on dramatically lowered expectations for CAT (a “not as bad” loss) and MMM. Both actually were even lower at the close than they were pre-market. The DJIA finished 1222.19 (.60%) while the NASDAQ was +72.44 (.64%), and S&P 500 -10.29 (.30%), the Russell -14.50 (.90%) and the biggest loser, the DJ Transports -173.21 (1.49%). Market internals were 2:1 down at the NYSE and only slightly better on the NAZ at 5:3 lower. The volume was very light, even considering the time of year. The DJIA was 23 down and 7 higher with the big winner, one we own, CRM, adding 55 DP’s and the losers GS -38, BA -37, CAT & MMM -34 DP’s.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members.
Last week’s interview with Joe Moscato, CEO of GNBT is available today at https://youtu.be/rJBtqC75g3A It’s a great story and this stock (I believe) won’t stay at these levels once there is a wider understanding of what this company actually has going for it!!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/8kbt4YIVlZU
SECTORS: Earnings was the big mover today for CAT, MMM, PFE and this evening MSFT. As I mentioned above, CAT was a loss, but not as bad as feared and the stock started early trading -3.76, but got weaker all day and finished $157.91 -5.29 (3.2%), MMM was a beat, but was -2.16 early but finished $161.04 -5.12 (3.1%). PFE finished $37.42 -.50 (1.3%). MSFT beat on all metrics with better numbers as well as margins. Their Chromebook numbers were up, MSFT 365 was up and both the Cloud and Gaming businesses were higher. The call hasn’t started yet but the stock had closed $213.25 +3.17 (the recent move was from $196 to 225 since late September) and the stock fell to 211, rallied up to $216, and since has sold off to the $210 area. The biggest mover by far was Harley Davidson (HOG) which came in with a major surprise and after closing $29.00 -1.07 Monday was up to $32.70 pre-market, opened $32.37 and flew up to $37.20 and finished $35.40 +6.40 (22.7%). The move was the best day in the history for the company!
New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were LOWER with CCL -.30, RCL -1.24, NCLH -.30, AAL -.61, DAL -1.36, LUV -1.34, UAL -1.26, HA -.39, ALK -1.23 and I’ve switched to JETS as a more representative ETF for the group which finished the day $17.15 -.63 (3.54%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was MIXED with TSN +.21, BGS +.85, FLO +.05, CPB -.05, CAG -.59, MDLZ -.42, KHC +.08, CALM -.10, JJSF +.10, SAFM +2.71, HRL +.58, SJM -2.00, PPC +.,04, KR -.83, and a new addition ACI +.+.09, and PBJ $33.72 -.03 (.08%).
BIO-PHARMA: was LOWER with BIIB -1.46, ABBV -1.37, REGN -5.85, ISRG +9.13, GILD -.12, MYL -.59, TEVA -.38, VRTX +5.04, BHC -.09, INCY -209, ICPT +.08, LABU +1.69, and IBB $135.87 +.76 (.56%). CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY -.27, CGC +.09, CRON +.04, GWPH -1.38, ACB -.37, CURLF +.03, KERN -.64, and MJ $11.04 -.05 (.45%).
DEFENSE was LOWER with LMT -7.55, GD -3.91, TXT -1.06, NOC -8.36, BWXT -.63, TDY -11.02, RTX -4.16, and ITA $155.39 -5.04 (3.14%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with M -.35, JWN -.62, KSS -.85, DDS -1.52, WMT +.10, TGT -.94, TJX -1.01, RL -2.33, UAA -.26, LULU +2.21, TPR +.15, CPRI +.28, and a new addition GPS -.35, and XRT $53.84 -.21 (.40%).
MEGA-CAP & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL +10.70, AMZN +64.96, AAPL +1.03, FB +5.29, NFLX -2.74, NVDA +7.10, TSLA -1.95, BABA +9.33, BIDU +.85, CMG -11.73, CRM +7.40, BA -6.56, CAT -5.60, DIS -1.29 and XLK $115.78 -.09 (-.08%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -5.99, JPM -2.43, BAC -.77, MS -1.92, C 1.58, PNC -2.44, AIG -.14, TRV -2.45, V -3.27, and XLF $24.12 -.56 (2.27%).
OIL, $39.57 +1.01, Oil has been locked into the current range and tried to break in either direction without success. Last week I said, “While I think it may resolve to the downside, I am not taking any new positions.” The stocks were lower today even though there has been a pickup in M&A activity in the group. XLE finished $28.75 -.55 (1.88%).
GOLD $1,911.90 + 6.20 opened LOWER and managed to rally while the market for stocks sold off. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end.
BITCOIN: closed $13,685 +6.40 After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and 250 today @$14.19, and we closed out the final 250 @ $15.44. GBTC closed $15.63 +1.25 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Inspiration
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Data
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Brokerage data
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
Media
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day

investing comments / day
Analysis
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
SPX daily
Rationale
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
  • They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
  • They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
  • Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
  • This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
  • Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market.
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
SPY daily
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
VIX Daily
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

SNAP Flies

For Trading October 21st
IBM & NFLX TANK, SNAP FLIES UP
An Unimpressive Outing for Indexes
Today’s market was another reversal of fortune after an up open and a high +379, we fell all the way back to close +113.37 (.40%), NASDAQ was +153 but finished +37.61 (.33%) and the rest followed the pattern with S&P 500 +16.20 (.47%), the Russell +4.08 (.25%) and the biggest gainer, DJ Transports +152.21 (1.3%). Internals were just okay with NYSE 2:1 up and NAZ just 6:5. Volume was average. The DJIA was 24 up, 6 lower, with the biggest changes from IBM -54 DP’s and TRV +40DP’s. Aside from IBM there were no other double-digit losers and all the rest of the double-digit gainers were up less than 20 points.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!!
Yesterday’s interview with Joe Moscato, CEO of GNBT is available today at https://youtu.be/rJBtqC75g3A It’s a great story and this stock (I believe) won’t stay at these levels once there is a wider understanding of what this company actually has going for it!!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/UYkje0_lqQo
SECTORS: Earnings were the big mover today with the aforementioned IBM miss that took the stock down last night and into the open, but that was just a warmup. By the end of the day Big Blue was pounded for a low of 116.84 and a close not much higher at $117.45 -8.07 (8.07%). Netflix (NFLX) also missed and after closing $525.42 -5.30, it plummeted to $486 and the last is $493.90 -37.03 (6.98%). The decline from the new all-time high of $572.49 just last Wednesday is just under 14%.
The big winner so far is SNAP with a surprise beat that sent the stock to a new all-time high at $35.57 and a last of $34.89 +6.23 or 21.67% on the day. And the HOMERUN OF THE DAY goes to Astrotech, ASTC, who signed an agreement to produce a “breath” test for Covid-19. The stock has been reversed twice in the past 12 years both 1:10 and 1:5 giving it an adjusted high of $800 and a close today of $1.69, but after the announcement of the joint venture with Cleveland Clinic the stock has been on a tear to a high of $6.90 and the last of $6.72 +5.01 (300%). Tomorrow ought to be interesting once the RH traders get a hold of it!
New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were HIGHER with CCL +.49, RCL +2.17, NCHL +.64, AAL +.32, DAL +.58, LUV +.36, UAL +.75, HA +.34, ALK +.42, and XTN $61.67 +1.12 (1,86%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN -.45, FLO -.57, CPB -.93, CAG -.35, MDLZ -.19, KHC +.22, CALM -.03, JJSF +.94, SAFM -3.35. HRL -.26, SJM - 1.08, PPC +.06, KR -.48, and a new addition ACI +.86, and PBJ $34.18 -.04 (.11%).
BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB +2.23, ABBV +.19, REGN -6.51, ISRG +2.14, GILD +.15, MYL -.11, TEVA -.11, VRTX -5.50, BHC -.19, INCY +2.10, ICPT -1.57, LABU -2.47, and IBB $136.53 -.90 (.65%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.21, CGC -.66, CRON -.06, GWPH +.28, ACB -.21, CURLF +.50, KERN -.22 and MJ $11.36 -.16 (1.39%).
DEFENSE was LOWER with LMT -10.71, GD -.22, TXT -.51, NOC -2.28, BWXT -.77, TDY +5.16, RTX -.22, and ITA $163.00 -1.36 (.83%).
RETAIL: was MIXED with M +.24, JWN +.17, KSS +1.28, DDS -2.33, WMT +.95, TGT +.82, TJX -.20, RL -.85, and a new addition GPS -.07, and XRT $53.79 +.11 (.20%).
MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL +40.05, AMZN +10.79, AAPL +1.89, FB +14.35, NFLX (see above) -35.62, NVDA +6.39, TSLA -5.98, BABA +5.41, BIDU +.83, CMG +14.42, CRM +2.25, BA +.46, CAT +2.40, DIS +.77 and XLK $119.60 +.70 (.59%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +2.34, JPM +.57, BAC +.49, MS +.52, C +.74, PNC +2.07, AIG +.56, TRV +6.27, V +1.13, and XLF $24.96 +.35 (1.42%).
OIL, $41.70 +.64, Oil has been locked into the current range and tried to break in either direction without success. While I think it may resolve to the downside, I am not taking any new positions. The stocks were higher today and there has been a pickup in M&A activity in the group. XLE finished $29.90 +.35 (1.18%).
GOLD $1,915.40 +3.70opened HIGHER and made a slightly higher high and a higher low, closing near the highs of the day. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end.
BITCOIN: closed $11,970 +215. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $13.30 +.47 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

For Trading Sep 22

For Trading September 22nd
NASDAQ Reversal
NKLA LOWER TREVOR MILTON OUT
TRAVEL DECLINES New section below
Today’s market started off with a massive selloff that started in Europe and only got worse. Shortly after the open the DJIA was -940, NASDAQ -280, and S&P -90, but that was about it. While it was ugly, there were rallies off those lows with the biggest being the NASDAQ, actually looking like it might make it into the green, but finishing just below those levels -14.48 (.13%), DJIA -509.72 (1.84%), S&P -38.41 (1.16%), the Russell -51.53 (3,35%) and the DJ Transports -302.91 (2.65%). Market internals were weak with the NYSE 6:1, NASDAQ 4:1, and volume bigger than recent days. The DJIA was 26 down, 4 up with the biggest losers UNH -60, HON -50, BA, AXP, AMGN and several others all shaving about 30 DP’s off the averages. On the upside, several big names, AAPL, MSFT, WMT, and CRM all turned back off their lows and finished both near their highs and up on the day.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking !!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/N5b78BIEOaY
SECTORS: There weren’t any important economic numbers today, but there was plenty of news. NKLA was a feature with Trevor Milton stepping down and leaving the board. His hyperbolic attitude was clearly a touch too much and some of the claims totally without any proof. The stock has several detractors and the two reports from last week by notable “short firms” Citron and Hindenburg, putting out reports calling attention to those claims. Beyond the financial claims, the most glaring was the video of their semi rolling down the highway, which turned out to be exactly that, rolling from the top of a hill down without its own power. The stock, $93.99 in June, and $54.56 just 2 weeks ago had fallen to close Friday at $34.19, opened today $25.00, traded as low as 24.05 before turning back higher a bit and finishing 27.58 -6.61 (19.33%) and cut in half since 9/8/2020. On the upside we had WMT, MSFT, and ORCL on the news of the structuring of a deal for TIK TOK. I’m pretty attentive to details, but after an entire day of hearing the details I still don’t know who is going to own what piece of the new entity, what the costs and pricing represent, or how China feels about it. I guess we’ll have to await more details before it’s a “done deal.” New Group: Air & Cruise Lines: was LOWER with CCL -.92, RCL -4.35, NCHL -1.02, AAL -.83, DAL -2.77, LUV -2.13, UAL -2.82, HA -1.01, ALK -2.84, JBLU -1.02 AND XTN $59.27 -1.21 (2.0%). All these prices were down between 6% – 8% on the day.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was MIXED with TSN -2.01, BGS +.57, FLO -.06, CPB +.75, CAG +.45, MDLZ -.67, KHC +.11, CALM -.89, JJSF -4.40, SAFM -3.19, HRL -.28, SJM +.40, PPC -1.11, KR +.25 and PBJ $32.15 -.30 (.9%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -6.18, ABBV -.92, REGN +.46, ISRG -13.62, GILD -.70, MYL -.88, TEVA -.54, VRTX -1.39, BHC -.67, INCY -1.40, ICPT -1.69, LABU -6.14, and IBB $132.83 -3.49 (2.56%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.31, CGC -.60, CRON -.16, GWPH -.18, ACB -.08, NBEV -.06, CURLF +.19, KERN -.12, and MJ $10.87 -.31 (2.77%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -15.14, GD -4.66, TXT -1.98, NOC -15.61, BWXT -1.29, TDY -12.48, RTX -2.33, and ITA $159.67 -5.88 (3.55%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with M -.41, JWN -1.13, KSS -1.84, DDS -2.15, WMT +2.11, TGT +1.04, TJX -1.85, RL -4.66, UAA -.83, LULU +.34, TPR -.85, CPRI -.41, and XRT $49.08 -1.20 (2.39%).
MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were MIXED with GOOGL -20.95, AMZN +15.42, AAPL +3.24, FB -3.63, NFLX +17.54, NVDA +14.36, TSLA -14.95, BABA +1.76, BIDU -.01, CMG -8.96, CRM +1.77, BA -4.83, CAT -6.99, DIS -3.23, and XLK $113.01 +1.47 (1.34%).
PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -.41, JPM -3.00, BAC -.75M MS -1.76, C -.91, PNC-2.92, AIG -.94, TRV -2.16, V -4.76, and XLF $24.00 -.55 (2.22%).
OIL, $39.54 -1.78, Oil was higher all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider selling it for a correction. The stocks were higher with XLE $32.12 -.96 (2.86%).
GOLD $1,910.60 – 51.90, opened LOWER but and gave up most of the recent gains and finished well off the low but substantially lower. I will be taking a hard look at buying GLD tomorrow.
BITCOIN: closed $10,485 -395. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.13 -.61 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

Banks Beat, FSLY skids

For Trading October 16th
BANKS BEAT
FSLY PLUMMETS
Today’s market was interesting…We had a great deal of information before the open with initial claims (slightly higher) and continuing claims (lower), strong results for Phili Fed and Empire State numbers. None of it mattered at the open and the DJIA was down as much as 333 before going sideways until a little after 11:00 when we started to gain a little traction on the upside. Around 3:30 we popped back above unchanged and finished -19.80 (.07%), NASDAQ -54.86 (.47%), S&P 500 -5.33 (.15%) while the Russell finished higher by 17.53 (1.06%) and the Transports +101.34 (.85%). A/D was 1.2:1 on NYSE and 6:5 on the NAZ. Volume was the lightest of the week, even though we covered a lot of distance. The DJIA was split 16:14 UP. No major movers in either direction.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!!
Yesterday’s interview with Joe Moscato, CEO of GNBT is available today at https://youtu.be/rJBtqC75g3A It’s a great story and this stock (I believe) won’t stay at these levels once there is a wider understanding of what this company actually has going for it!!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/6b8Is89lGOg
SECTORS: No individual stocks tonight. They are all covered in the Closing Comment…https://youtu.be/6b8Is89lGOg
New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were LOWER with CCL +.13, RCL -.39, NCHL -.29, AAL -.07, DAL -.32, LUV -.30, UAL -1.22, HA -.11, ALK -.50, and XTYN $61.82 +.125 (.41%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +1.38, BGS +.36, FLO +.11, CPB -.30, CAG +.10, MDLZ -.15, KHC +.13, CALM +.54, JJSF +.41, SAFM +1.07. HRL +.24, SJM -.11, PPC -.05, KR +.21, and PBJ $34.65 +.09 (.26%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -7.02, ABBV -.71, REGN -12.12, ISRG -37.07, GILD -1.24, MYL +.19, TEVA -.01, VRTX -54.46, BHC +.64, INCY -2.57, ICPT +.47, LABU +.72, and IBB $139.50 -2.95 (2.07%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.36, CGC -.33, CRON -.15, GWPH -1.03, ACB -.19, CURLF +.02, KERN -.07, and MJ $11.21 -.28 (2.44%).
DEFENSE was MIXED with LMT -4.22, GD -.64, TXT -.17, NOC -.07, BWXT +.20, TDY +1.86, RTX +.74, and ITA $164.34 +.76 (.46%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.15, JWN +.29, KSS .01, DDS +.08, WMT +.87, TGT +2.02, TJX unch., RL +2.87, UAA +.41, LULU +1.83, TPR +.75, CPRI +1.06, and a new addition GPS +.29, and XRT $54.88 +.81 (1.50%).
MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were LOWER with GOOGL -6.64, AMZN -20.71, AAPL -.19, FB -4.42, NFLX -.45, NVDA -3.96, TSLA -14.55, BABA +.41, BIDU -5.57, CMG +25.35, CRM -3.23, BA +1.20, CAT +1.86, DIS +1.06, and XLK $121.93-.09 (.07%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS -2.03, JPM +1.63, BAC +.59, MS +.85, C +.64, PNC +.97, AIG +.35, TRV +.61, V -1.70, and XLF $24.97 +.19 (.77%).
OIL, $41.24 +.10, Oil was near recent highs and sold off hard Friday touching $37.61 (down about 6%) before mounting a rally back to close today $30.89 +.37 (1.21%).
GOLD $1,908.90 +1.60, opened HIGHER and made a slightly higher high and a higher low, closing near the highs of the day. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end.
BITCOIN: closed $11,595 +1.85. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $12.46 +.26 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

ALGN flies

For Trading October 23rd
ALGN BEAT, INTC MISS
GILD GETS FIRST FDA APPROVAL CLAIMS NUMBERS IMPROVE
Today’s market was another back and forth. By the day’s end we were +152.84 (.54%), NASDAQ +21.32 (.19%), S&P 500 +17.93 (.52%), the Russell was the big winner +16.48 (1.65%) and DJ Transports +23.53 (.20%) with market internals 2:1 on the NYSE while NASDAQ was 1.7:1. Volume was just average. BA was the biggest winner adding 34 DP’s while BRM was the loser -30 DPs. The biggest news was the claims numbers with Initial claims falling below 800K to 787,000 and continuing fell to 8,373,000. While it didn’t do much for the preopen futures, it pared over $25.00 off Gold. Earnings got mixed reviews and I’ll go into that in the sector section below. #TERMLIMITS.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!!
Yesterday’s interview with Joe Moscato, CEO of GNBT is available today at https://youtu.be/rJBtqC75g3A It’s a great story and this stock (I believe) won’t stay at these levels once there is a wider understanding of what this company actually has going for it!!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/b1waAGacxkY
SECTORS: Earnings were the big movers again today with some big names putting out some big numbers. Unfortunately, a beat wasn’t a free ride to an up day. Cases in point were CTXS with a beat but fell to $126.00 -10.56 (7.6%) and TSCO finishing the day $137.85 -11.27 (7.5%). KMB was a split, beating revenues but missing on earnings and it was $138.79 -9.59 (6.46%), and INTC was a disappointment on several metrics with margins falling again to close $48.85 -4.65 (8.7%). Last quarter we had the same situation when it gapped down after the disappointment from $60.40 to finish $50.59 -9.81 and then continued lower for a week to settle just under $47.00. But the BIGGEST winner was ALGN, with a major beat and a gap to the upside after a close yesterday of $336.52 it finished the day $454.40 +118.40 (35%). The gap took the stock to a new all-time high by almost $60.00.
New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were HIGHER with CCL +.70, RCL +2.71, NCLH +.70, AAL +.38, DAL +2.10, LUV +2.04, UAL +1.63, HA +2.53, ALK +.91, and XTN $62.62 +1.59 (2.6%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +.53, BGS +.08, FLO +.03, CPB +.25, CAG +.26, MDLZ unchanged, KHC +.01, CALM +.81, JJSF +3.41, SAFM +4.21, HRL +.06, SJM +2.07, PPC +.23, KR -.63 and a new addition ACI -.18, and PBJ $34.15 +.02 (.07%).
BIO-PHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB -2.11, ABBV +1.65, REGN +5.60, ISRG +4.46, GILD +4.77, MYL +.61, TEVA unchanged, VRTX -1.30, BHC +.29, INCY +1.89, ICPT -.25, LABU +4.70, and IBB $136.78 +2.59 (1.93%).
CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.35, CGC +.76, CRON +.19, GWPH +.67, ACB -.03, CURLF -.07, KERN -.13, and MJ $11.63 +.20 (1.75%).
DEFENSE was HIGHER with LMT -+2.68, GD +2.81, TXT +.33, NOC -4.38, BWXT +1.49, TDY +8.24, RTX +2.45, and ITA $164.01 +3.22 (2.01%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.48, JWN +1.12, KSS +1.14, DDS +1.47, WMT -.79, TGT -3.56, TJX +1.17, RL +2.10, and a new addition GPS +2.88, and XRT $53.95 +.51 (.95%).
MEGA-CAP & FAANG were LOWER with GOOGL +20.67, AMZN -1.16, AAPL -.77, FB -.22, NFLX -4.62, NVDA -4.99, TSLA +3.86, BABA -1.37, BIDU -1.92, CMG -61.16, CRM -3.88, BA +5.14, CAT +2.60, DIS +1.02 and XLK $118.57 -.56 (.47%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS +3.08, JPM +3.83, BAC +.93, MS +1.62, C +1.08, PNC +4.68, AIG +.34, TRV +1.32, V unchanged, and XLF $25.17 +.49 (1.99%).
OIL, $40.64 +.61, Oil has been locked into the current range and tried to break in either direction without success. Last night I said, “While I think it may resolve to the downside, I am not taking any new positions.” The stocks were lower today and there has been a pickup in M&A activity in the group. XLE finished $30.54 +1.21 (4.13%).
GOLD $1,906.50 -24.90 opened HIGHER and made a higher into the falling 50-day MA and a higher low, closing near the highs of the day. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end.
BITCOIN: closed $13,155 +400. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and 250 today @$14.19, and we still have 250 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $14.63 +.33 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

Battery Day

For Trading September 23RD
NASDAQ BEST PERFORMER, AGAIN!
BATTERY DAY
NKE, KBH, & SFIX REPORT
Today’s market started off slowly and spent most of the day wavering between up and down until the final hour and managed to make a new high and have a solid close. NASDAQ was the clear strength finishing up 3 times the DJIA at +184.84 (1.71%), DJIA +140.48 (.52%), S&P 500 +34.51 (1.05), the Russell +11.71 (.79%) and the DJ Transports +85.50 (.77%). Market internals were split with NYSE 4:3 up, but even though the NASDAQ showed a major gain, the split was 1:1. Volume was slightly lower than Monday. Sales of existing homes were +2.4% and while pricing was strong, the lack of supply continues to be well below demand. This actually skews the numbers lower than if there were more for buyers to purchase.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members.
I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!!
TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking !!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/Ry0hBpMk-CQ
SECTORS: The most “hyped” news of the day was the Tesla “Battery Day,” on the schedule seemingly forever, and the hype got so bad that even Elon Musk had to make statements yesterday trying to calm it a bit. The stock was lower all day finishing regular hours $424.23 -25.16, and after the close it rallied back to down just $14. However, I waited to do tonight’s note until there was some further action on the “show” and surprisingly, the stock has traded lower, trading $394 with a last of $406 right now (7:00pm). We’ll have to see it in the morning since it could be $375, or $425 again. Earnings from a couple of big names came after the close. Nike (NKE) beat numbers both top and bottom lines and also managed to cut S, G, & A and spent less on advertising since there were no sports on TV for the quarter and it clearly showed! The stock had closed $116.87 +3.50 (3.09%) but once the conference call was on it exploded higher trading $128 when I did tonight’s closing comment, but it has continued higher trading $134 and having a last trade now (7:15) of $131.75 +18.38 (16.12%). KB Homes also beat and was $40.50 +1.57 at the close and traded up to $43.65 and is currently $40.00 1.07. SFIX was not so great as it beat on revenues and missed on earnings. It had closed $31.38 +2.32 (7.98%) and had traded $34.00 before the call and then fell hard to $$25.90 and the last was $26.40 -2.66 (9.15%). Pretty ugly call, I guess! And the disaster du jour was a little bio named Vaccinex (VCNX) who had a negative result on a trial for Huntington’s disease. The stock had a high $12.23 in January and a recent low of $3.22 in July and closed $5.47 and opened today $2.30 and finished the day $2.24 -3.23 (59%). I hate when that happens! New Group: Air & Cruise Lines: were HIGHER with CCL +.01, RCL +1.56, NCHL +.34, AAL +.17, DAL +.36, LUV +.45, UAL +.25, HA +.08, ALK +.16, JBLU +.24, and XTN $58.35 +.16 (.27%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was MIXED with TSN -.26, BGS -.17, FLO +.09, CPB -.55, CAG +.04, MDLZ -.04, KHC -.41, CALM +.53, JJSF -2.10, SAFM -.49, HRL +.22, SJM +.09, PPC -.03, KR +.29, and PBJ $32.31 +.16 (.51%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +4.46, ABBV -.59, REGN +15.81, ISRG +25.05, GILD -.72, TEVA -.11, VRTX +3.58, BHC -.52, INCY +1.54, ICPT -.58, LABU +.24, and IBB $133.84 +1.01 (.76%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY +.12, CGC -.08, CRON -.05, GWPH +.94, ACB -.34, NBEV +.03, CURLF -.01, KERN -.03, and MJ $10.80 -.03 (.28%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +8.79, GD +1.12, TXT -.07, NOC +6.91, BWXT +.86, TDY +4.23, RTX -.27, and ITA $161.,25 +1.58 (.99%).
RETAIL: was MIXEDR with M +.04, JWN -.28, KSS -.53, DDS -1.58, WMT +.63, TGT +3.64, TJX -.29, RL +3.83, UAA +.57, LULU +23.94, TPR +.12, CPRI -.17 and XRT $50.62 +1.33 (2.7%).
MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL +25.86, AMZN +154.53, AAPL +.49, FB +5.75, NFLX +2.65, NVDA +.11, TSLA -54.89, BABA +.83, BIDU -.55, CMG +26.03, CRM +1.95, BA -.09, CAT +1.66, DIS +1.93 and XLK $113.94 +1.50 (1.33%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -2.30, JPM -1.10, BAC -.53, MS -.69, C -.65, PNC -3.84, AIG +.36, TRV -.20, AXP +.21, V +3.05, and XLF $23.73-.20 (.84%).
OIL, $39.80 +.26, Oil was higher all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider selling it for a correction. The stocks were lower with XLE $31.84 -.33 (1.03%).
GOLD $1,907.60 -3.00, opened LOWER but and gave up most of the recent gains and finished well off the low but substantially lower. I will be taking a hard look at buying GLD tomorrow. We added 4 and 2 NEM 10/70 calls @$.56 today. Average is now .98.
BITCOIN: closed $10,495 +10. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.27 +.14 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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Q3

For Trading October 1st
Welcome to Q3
Rally Continues
PLTR Prices @ $7.25 ASAN $21.00
Today’s market was looking pretty ugly on the overnight futures reaction to the debate, but we had a deluge of positive data coming from ADP, Case Schiller, Chicago PMI, another look at Q2 GDP and mortgage applications. We moved from -200 DJIA to +100 in the last 20 minutes leading up to the open and it only got better from there. We had the Treasury Secretary from the Seeking Alpha virtual meeting talking about his conversations with Speaker Pelosi and gave some hopeful words, which added gas to the fire, and we were headed to +550 on the DJIA with the rest of the market following. When the dust settled we finished with the DJIA +329.04 (1.2%), NASDAQ +82.26 (.74%), S&P 500 +27.53 (.83%), the Russell +2.97 (.20%) and the DJ Transports the only one lower at -71.79 (.63%). Market internals were unimpressive although volume was about 30% higher but that was likely the effect of the end of the quarter. There were only 2 DJIA lower (DIS & NKE) while the biggest gainers were AXP, UNH, AMGN, GS, & HD.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members.
I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!!
TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking !!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/e9UkY-d19rw
SECTORS: There wasn’t a lot of sector news, but we did have some news from DIS after the close laying off 28,000 employees at the “parks” division with full time, part time, as well as executives. The stock finished today $124.00, better than last night’s reaction but still lower by $1.40 (1.12%). Micron (MU) was sold off even though they beat top and bottom lines but sellers took control and after it traded up to $52.67 on the headline, it spent the day today selling off and closed on the lows at $46.90 -3.81 (7.51%). This is why I always try to NOT trade earnings reports. This is a prime example of being right on the numbers and having it cost you money.
Becton Dickenson reported positive results on their “antigen-based test’ and was higher, closing $233.71 +8.28 (3.67%). Moderna (MRNA) was also higher during the day with a high of $75.39 but finished $70.75 +.23 (.33%). PLL who signed a 5-year agreement with TESLA for an element used in batteries that had traded $54.50 and since closing $37 +26 has had a couple of weaker days finishing the day today $23.69 -1.69 (6.66%) but still well up from $11.00.
New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were HIGHER with CCL +.27, RCL +.50, NCLH +.80, AAL +.16, DAL +.12, UAL +.59, HA +.15, ALK -.04 and XTN $58.15 -.18 (.32%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +.51, BGS -.04, FLO +.23, CPB +.35, CAG +.17, MDLZ +.96, KHC +.34, CALM -.22, JJSF +1.04, SAFM -.03, HRL +.38, SJM +2.51, PPC +.17, KR +.19, and PBJ $32.72 +.22 (.68%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +1.33, ABBV +1.28, REGN -12.51, ISRG +19.45, GILD +1.45, MYL +.26, TEVA +.16, VRTX +1.81, BHC +.77, INCY +2.31, ICPT +.01, LABU -.23, and IBB $135.41 +.80 (.59%). CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY +.11, CGC -.15, CRON -.01, GWPH -.47, NBEV +.01, CURLF +.16, KERN -.04, and MJ $10.36 -.07 (.67%).
DEFENSE was LOWER with LMT -4.98, GD -.12, TXT -.68, NOC -7.90, BWXT -.96, TDY -1.73, RTX +.16, and ITA $159.79 -.07.
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.07, JWN +.29, KSS +.15, DDS +3.01, WMT WMT +3.13, TGT +1.05, TJX +1.49, RL +.63, UAA +.15, LULU +7.71, TPR -.07, CPRI +.33 and XRT $49.66 +.35 (.71%).
MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL -.07, AMZN +17.12, AAPL +2.08, FB +1.01, NFLX +7.31, NVDA +14.12, TSLA +12.03, BABA +18.07, BIDU +5.39, CMG -11.28, CRM +4.35, BA +5.70, CAT +2.09, DIS -.91, and XLK $117.07 +1.34 (1.16%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with interest rates with GS +4.18, JPM +.87, BAC +.36, MS +1.18, C +.72, PNC +3.88, AIG +.29, TRV +.56, V +.96, and XLF $24.09 +.34 (1.42%).
OIL, $40.22 +.93, Oil was in a fairly tight range all day. After the oil sold off yesterday it had an “inside day” today, so no real hint to which way it is going out of this consolidation. The stocks were MIXED with XLE $30.03 -.01 (.03%).
GOLD $1,895.50 – 7.70, opened HIGHER and made a slightly higher high and a higher low, closing mid-range but down on the day. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end. We sold the balance of the 3X silver ETF calls at $2.10.
BITCOIN: closed $10,770 -45. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.01 -.02 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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Apple on Fuego

For Trading October 13th
NASDAQ NAMES FLY
NOT AS GOOD AS IT LOOKS
Oh Goody, Earnings Season
Today’s market was nice to see but if you don’t own the 7 or 8 big names it wasn’t anywhere near as good as it looked. The indexes closed up, but the spread was obvious with the DJIA +250.62 (.88%), NASDAQ +296.32 (2.56%), S&P 500 +57.09 (1.64%), the Russell +11.51 (.70%), and the Transports a dismal +18.49 (.16%). Volume was VERY light, and A/D was just 3:2 on both sides. DJIA was 23/7 up with AAPL the leader adding $49 DP’s, MSFT +37, CAT +25 and the biggest loser NKE -10 DP’s. My least favorite time of the quarter starts tomorrow with several of the banks leading the names to report Q2 earnings. As you all know, I try hard not to be involved in earnings plays since they are a coin-toss at best and you can have solid ideas on what will be reported, get it right, and if the “whisper number” was higher you get stuck in a down-draft of disappointment. Not for me! And the only groups showing weakness were energy and materials.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/3b6deMjWEvc
SECTORS: There was good news for holders of the biggest names with AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, and NVDA all moving between 4% – 7%. The biggest winner was AAPL +7.69 (6.57%). AMZN +172.35, GOOGL +57.54. Major gains for the biggest and the best. TWTR gained $2.45 (5.34%) on an upgrade by DB, TWLO $329.72 +23.48 on the news it was spending $3.2Billion on SEGMENT, and PEP $142.13 +3.69 (2.7%) on the Citi upgrade from neutral to buy. And a big name in the medical and drug business is gone... MNK closed $ .75, down from an all-time high of $133 on the filing (completely expected) of bankruptcy. I hope the RH traders don’t pile in to this worthless shell of a major company…DEAD And the big gainer of the day, over $5.00 was DDS $55.00 +12.92 (30.70%) on the news that one of Berkshire Hathaway’s advisors bought 5.9% of the stocks. And, the Disaster Du Jour of the day was Avenue Therapeutics (ATXI), with the FDA decision not to approve Tramadol, an opioid, in its present form. The stock was $5.24 -5.36 (50%) in premarket trading and then it only got worse. It finished the day $$4.53 -6.51 (59%)…OUCH..I hate when the stock looks like a 2:1 split all by itself !
New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were LOWER with CCL -.44, RCL -1.11, NCLH -.61, AAL -.27, DAL -11, LUV -.48, UAL -.79, HA -.44, ALK -.04, and XTN $61.68 -.15 (.25%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +.99, BGS +.37, FLO +.27, CPB +.65, CAG +.69, MDLZ +1.49, CALM -.23, JJSF +.23, SAFM +3.94, HRL +1.14, SJM +1.24, PPC +.42, KR +.29, and PBJ $34.56 +.36 (1.05%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +4.94, ABBV +.79, REGN -.52, ISRG +17.48, GILD +.67, MYL +.34, TEVA -.35, VRTX +4.65, BHC -.20, INCY +2.60, ICPT -2.76, LABU +.64 and IBB $143.92 +1.39 (.98%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with the comment in last night’s debate that Kamala Harris that they would legalize pot. TLRY +.26, CGC +1.58, CRON +.19, GWPH +1.64, ACB .05, CURLF +.32, KERN +.30, and MJ $11.80 +.23 (1.99%).
DEFENSE was HIGHER with LMT +3.10, GD +1.07, TXT +.11, NOC +1.31, BWXT +.96, TDY +2.39, RTX +.64, and ITA $164.84 +.59 (.36%).
RETAIL: was MIXED with M +.02, JWN -.21, KSS -.18, DDS +12.92 (30.7%) see above, WMT +1.74, TGT +1.29, TJX -.22, RL -.25, UAA +.40, LULU +1.64, TPR +.38, CPRI +.27, and a new addition GPS -.45, and XRT $54.05 +.01 (.02%).
MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL +57.54, AMZN +171.85, AAPL +7.69, FB +11.60, NFLX +.36, NVDA 19.98, TSLA +8.94, BABA +7.51, BIDU +1.31, CMG -2.58, CRM +1.87, BA +.05, CAT +3.73, DIS +6.58, and XLK $123.83 +3.,65 (3.04%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +7.44, JPM +1.80, BAC +.19, MS +2.67, C +1.30, PNC +1.13, AIG +.51, TRV +.71, V -2.25, and XLF $25.59 +.36 (1.43%).
OIL, $39.43 -1.17, Oil was near recent highs and sold off hard Friday touching $37.61 (down about 6%) before mounting a rally back to close +2.17. The stocks were LOWER with XLE $30.86 +.07 (.23%).
GOLD $1,928.90 +2.70, opened HIGHER and made a slightly higher high and a higher low, closing near the highs of the day. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end.
BITCOIN: closed $11630 +520. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $12.67 +.90 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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Merger Monday

For Trading September 29TH
MERGER MONDAY!
BROAD RALLY
Today’s market started off on the upside and spent the rest of the day comfortably up, in fact the DJIA +410.10 (1.5%), was the only one of the averages that came off the highs at the close, finishing 140 or so below it. NASDAQ was +203.97 (1.87%), S&P 500 +53.14 (1.61%), the Russell +35.48, the biggest gainer (2.41%) and the DJ Transports +170.95 (1.52%). What was most impressive to me was the fact that the Mega-cap and FAANG names weren’t weak, but definitely not racing higher all day. The other interesting point was that all the indexes closed over last weeks highs! The market internals were actually pretty good with the NYSE 5:1 and NASDAQ 3:1; volume was light (Jewish holiday) and the DJIA was solidly positive with only 3 of the 30 lower and all less than $1. BA was the biggest winner adding 66 DP’s. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!!
TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking !!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/pEWUtvQgNoM
SECTORS: There wasn’t a lot of sector news, but we did have 2 deals; Devon Energy (DVN) and WPX Energy in a merger of equals that the street liked sending both of them higher. DVN $9.80 +.98 (11%) and WPX $5.17 +.73. DVN has spent the last 10 years moving steadily lower from $122 to a low of $4.70, and WPX not quite so bad from $25 to $1.94. I guess when you compare -92% vs. -95% there really aren’t any winners.
Also, in the M&A arena, we have Cleveland Cliffs,13.37 +1.28 (10.6% CLF buying the US assets of MT, Arcelor Mittal for $1.4 billion. The street liked this one too, CLF $6.56 +.68 (11.5%) and MT $13.37 +1.28 (10.6%), although this one is cash and stock, so it’s hard to quote a valuation. It wasn’t all good news, with 2 smallish biotech’s, INO and EIGR both having problems with their Covid-19 vaccine trials. INO, up from $1.95 this year to peak at $33.49 had already fallen back to close Friday $16.94 opened the day at $10.67 and closed $12.14 -4.80 (28%), and EIGR with a January high near $15 and Friday close $9.89 opened the day $9.47 and then sold down to $7.67 and closed $7.96 -1.93 (19.5%). On the upside, in a major way, was Piedmont Lithium (PLL) taking the HOMERUN OF THE DAY disclosing a 5-year contract with TESLA for the mineral Spodumene, a component of lithium. The stock had closed $11.00 and opened $36.66, traded up to $54.50 and finished the day $37.00 +$26 (236.36%). Also, of interest, according to my service, the stock last traded Thursday, 9/17, so unlike many deals that “leak” this was as clean as a whistle. One more small one, Oxbridge Re Holdings, a Cayman re-insurance company that shows absolutely no news and has spent the last 5 years going from $7.76 to a low of $ .55, closed $1.07 Friday and opened $1.55 and proceeded to move up to $9.62 and back down to close $2.95 +1.88 (175%). I’m sure we’ll hear more on that one tomorrow!
New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were HIGHER with CCL +.22, RCL +1.67, NCHL +.14, AAL +.55, DAL +1.78, LUV +1.38, UAL +1.85, HA +.61, ALK +1.25, and XTN $59.28 +1.34 (2.31%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +.53, FLO +.29, CPB +.42, CAG +.46, MDLZ +1.20, KHC +.96, CALM +.29, JJSF +2.06, SAFM +1.96, HRL +.86, SJM +1.09, PPC +.18, KR +.17, and PBJ $32.64 +41 (1.25%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +8.75, ABBV +1.72, REGN -2.14, ISRG +19.43, GILD +.78, MYL +.22, TEVA +.16, VRTX +.08, BHC +.08, INCY +3.81, ICPT unch., LABU +.03 and IBB $134.48 +1.01 (.76%). CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY +.09, CGC +.08, CRON -.12, GWPH -.94, ACB -.27, CURLF +.02, NBEV +.08, KERN -.03, and MJ $10.39 -.03 (.28%).
DEFENSE was HIGHER with LMT +4.31, GD +2.99, TXT +1.54, NOC +1.52, BWXT +.49, TDY +3.41, RTX +1.94, and ITA $181.82 +3.38 (2.13%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M -.04, JWN +.38, KSS +.11, DDS +.88, WMT +.16, TGT +2.11, TJX +2.70, RL -.60, UAA +.29, LULU +3.90, TPR +.39, CPRI -.51and XRT $50.08 +1.20 (2.45%).
MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL +25.94, AMZN +94.47, AAPL +3.22, FB +3.68, NFLX +9.12, NVDA +7.85, TSLA +12.46, BABA +6.26, CMG +18.90, BIDU +2.71, CMG +18.90, CRM +5.06, BA +10.47, CAT +2.09, DIS +2.25, and XLK $116.62 +2.68 (2.35%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +4.29, JPM +3.08, BAC +.71, MS +1.41, C +1.49, PNC +3.23, AIG +.68, TRV +2.11, V +4.03, and XLF $24.05 +.56 (2.38%).
OIL, $40.48 +.35, Oil was higher all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider selling it for a correction. The stocks were HIGHER with XLE $30.89 +.71 (2.35%).
GOLD $1,882.30 +16.00, opened LOWER but and gave up most of the recent gains and finished well off the low but slightly higher. I have closed out the NEM calls at a loss. I will take another look after I’ve seen some sideways action.
BITCOIN: closed $10,960 +135. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.16 - 0.07 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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Welcome to Q4

For Trading October 1st
Welcome to Q4
Rally Continues
Mega & Small Caps Rule the Day
Today’s market was very sloppy with the DJIA trading +260 to -120 and closing +36.20 (.13%), buoyed by BA, which at the high of the day had added 70 DP’s and finished nearer its low adding only 16. The biggest gainers for the day were V, a credit card company and WMT, the biggest retailer with 24 and 22 respectively. The real strength came from the NASDAQ, with the mega-caps +159 (1.42%) and the small-cap Russell +23.51 (1.56%). Interesting dichotomy. The S&P was somewhere in the middle +23.51 (.53%) and the Transports were -18.61 (.17%). Market internals 2:1 up on both, and volume was about 40% less than yesterday’s end of quarter numbers. With all the numbers this morning out of the way, tomorrow’s September employment numbers should set the tone.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!!
TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking !!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/5Qq05sql0Po
SECTORS: There wasn’t a lot of sector news, but we did have some more news on layoffs for airlines, and assorted companies across all industries from All State insurance to GS to Marathon Petroleum. This flies in the face of the government’s employment number and initial claims as well as anything they can point to show how well we are all doing. I’ve given up on thinking that these numbers are real, when I drive around town and see all the closed forever signs popping up on everything from dry cleaners to restaurants to anything that isn’t a franchise of a Dunkin or Panera, that are now empty. I just don’t understand how our “consumer” based economy will function with over 850,000 new initial claims every week and people that are leaving the employment seeking behind. And Starbucks raises their dividend Best Buy reports record sales increases while they’re closing many of its stores. I guess I just don’t get it!
New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were HIGHER with CCL -.13, RCL +.57, NCLH +.10, AAL +.20, DAL +.37, LUV +.11, UAL +.23, HA -.24, ALK -.03, and XTN $58.43 +.28 (.48%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN -.18, BGS +.08, FLO +.09, CPB +.15, CAG +.39, MDLZ +.55, KHC +.45, CALM +.03, JJSF +1.51, SAFM +1.53, HRL +.39, SJM +.48, PPC +.19, KR +.11, and PBJ $33.05 +.34 (1.04%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +1.89, ABBV -.19, REGN +8.36, ISRG +.98, GILD +.11, MYL -.03, TEVA +.06, VRTX +1.39, BHC +.32, INCY +2.69, ICPT +.62, LABU +2.14, and IBB $136.67 +1.26 (.93%). CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY +.01, CGC -.06, CRON -.01, GWPH -.85, NBEV +.13, CURLF -.10, KERN +.51, and MJ $10.39 -.02 (.19%).
DEFENSE was LOWER with LMT -2.28, GD -.65, TXT -.98, NOC -3.68, BWXT +.34, TDY -2.48, RTX -.14, and ITA $159.19 +.49.
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.16, JWN +.68, KSS +.93, DDS +.44, WMT +2.95, TGT +1.03, TJX +1.35, RL +1.03, UAA +.60, LULU +10.63, TPR +.22, CPRI +.12 and XRT $51.01 +1.35 (2.72%).
MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL +24.40, AMZN +66.77, AAPL +.99, FB +4.50, NFLX +26.68, NVDA +2.54, TSLA +13.79, BABA -4.33, BIDU -.14, CMG -5.71, CRM +2.68, BA +1.25, CAT -2.74, DIS -.78, and XLK $117.93 +1.23 (1.05%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were MIXED with GS -1.82, JPM +.63, BAC -.02, MS -1.04, C +.20, PNC -.48, AIG +.19, TRV -.38, V +3.28, and XLF $24.11 +.04 (.17%).
OIL, $38.72, Oil was near recent highs and sold off hard today touching $37.61 (down about 6%) before a minor rally back to close -1.50. The stocks were LOWER with XLE $29.03 -.92 (3.07%).
GOLD $1,916.30 +20.80, opened HIGHER and made a slightly higher high and a higher low, closing near the highs of the day. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end.
BITCOIN: closed $10,645 -125. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $10.87 -.10 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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Rally Monkey

For Trading October 6th
Rally Continues
Mega & Small Caps Rule the Day
Today’s market was strong from the overnight futures right through the close. Upbeat attitudes seemed to be the rule of the day with the president fairing better than expected and he made it clear, later verified by the doctors, that he would be headed back to the White House later this afternoon. At the close all stock markets were higher with the biggest gainers the mega-cap and the small-cap, with the DJIA +465.83 (1.68%), NASDAQ +257.47 (2.32%), S&P 500 +60.16 (1.8%), the Russell the biggest gainer +42,67 (2.77%) and the DJ Transports +184.99 (1.64%). ISM Services came in well over expectations at 57.8 vs. 55.6 expected and 56.9 in August. Unfortunately, Chapter 11 filings were up 78%, but the market was totally unaffected by the bad news on small business. Market internals were good with both NYSE and NASDAQ were 3:1 and volume was average. The DJIA had all 30 gainers with one of the new members, AMGN added 70 DP’s and many in the +25 - 30 range. The biggest factor for the day was Trump returning to the White House tonight, tweeted out this afternoon, later confirmed by his doctors in their afternoon update. That added about 125-150 to the DJIA.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!!
TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/J75X2GPb5n0
SECTORS: There was some good news for holders of MYOK, Myokardia, as BMY bid $225 for the company. The stock, which traded as low as $43.00 earlier this year closed Friday $139.60 finished the day today $220.34 +80.74 (58%). Not so fortunate, Cineworld, which trades in London and in B-Pounds, with a tracking stock here (CNNWK) announced that they are closing all of their movie theaters for the rest of the year and well into 2021. Here in the US they go under the name Regal Cinemas and are the second largest theater chain in the country. In London the stock, down from 220 this year closed $25.20 -14.27 (36%), and here in the US, CNWGY the stock traded $8.00 in July, down from over $10 in February, closed the day $1.10 -1.10 (50%). AMC, which traded as high as $36 in 2018, and $21 last year finished the day $4.13 -.52 (11.2%). A very tough day!
New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were MIXED with CCL -.16, RCL -.17, NCLH -.34, AAL +.10, DAL +.32, UAL +.24, LUV -.26, HA -.03, ALK unchanged, and XTN $60.08 +.70 (1.19%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN -.43, BGS +.13, FLO +.29, CPB -.22, CAG +.05, MDLZ +.22, KHC +.43, CALM -.36, JJSF +.40, SAFM +1.48, HRL +.49, SJM +.91, PPC -.10, KR +.41, and PBJ $33.36 +.31 (.95%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +6.54, ABBV +2.23, REGN +39.20, ISRG +11.42, GILD +1.67, MYL +.20, TEVA +.26, VRTX +8.18, BHC +.40, INCY +3.47, ICPT +1.34, LABU +7.70, and IBB $139.57 +5.70 (4.16%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +..60, CGC +.78, CRON +.15, GWPH +2.03, ACB +.06, NBEV +.09, CURLF +.05, KERN +.44, and MJ $10.85 +.49 (4.73%).
DEFENSE was HIGHER with LMT +2.92, GD +2.24, TXT +.68, NOC -1.86, BWXT -.24, TDY +5.71, RTX +.11, and ITA $161.14 +.26 (.16%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.04, JWN +.55, KSS +.36, DDS +2.03, WMT +1.15, TGT +2.39, TJX -.11, RL +1.87, UAA -.01, LULU +.93, TPR +.75, CPRI +1.20, and XRT $52.77 +1.48 (2.89%).
MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL +21.49, AMZN +73.00, AAPL +3.40, FB +4.32, NFLX +17.49, NVDA +23.85, TSLA +8.36, BABA +.43, BIDU -.12, CMG +4.99, CRM +4.05, BA +3.12, CAT +3.96, DIS +.69 and XLK $117.46 +2.52 (2.19%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with interest rates, with GS +1.90, JPM +2.01, BAC +.46, MS +.70, C +1.28, PNC +2.64, AIG +.73, TRV +2.43, V+2.04, and XLF $24.73 +.43 (1.77%).
OIL, $39.22 +2.17, Oil was near recent highs and sold off hard Friday touching $37.61 (down about 6%) before mounting a rally back to close +2.17. The stocks were HIGHER with XLE $30.13 +.82 (2.8%).
GOLD $1,920.10 +12.50, opened HIGHER and made a slightly higher high and a higher low, closing near the highs of the day. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end.
BITCOIN: closed $10,815 + 265. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.27 +.41 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

Dead Battery

For Trading September 24TH
NASDAQ WORST PERFORMER, AGAIN!
BATTERY DAY is a DUD
ABSOLUTE LUNACY
Today’s market started off on the upside hitting the high of the day by 9:45 and started to fail. By 10:30 we had moved below unchanged and spent the next 3 hours going sideways to down, and then the real selling began, taking the DJIA to below last weeks low and after a minor rally moved down to close -525.05 (1.9%), NASDAQ -330.65 (3.02%), S&P 500 -78.65 (2.07%), the Russell -45.59 (3.04%) and the DJ Transports -119.44 (1.06%). Volume on the NYSE was roughly 7:1 down, close to climactic, but not quite, and the A/D was 7.8:1 on NYSE and 5:1 on NASDAQ. Housing price index was unchanged @ +1% as expected and mortgage apps. Increased 6.8% following a -2.5% last week. Covid-19 numbers are on the rise again with France the big winner (loser?) on number of new cases and deaths.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!!
TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking !!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/jd4FWkDRLig
SECTORS: The lunacy of this market knows no bounds. A company added a “EV Charger” business and it rallies from a prior close of $1.05 to a high of $46.67 and finishes the day @ $14.00 +1233%. This is the same kind of activity that occurred in 1999 when all you had to do was add “.com” to the company name and settle back to watch the fireworks. In reality, SPI Energy (SPI) is a company that had a high of $1,800 at the start of 2016. That may seem pretty extreme for a stock that closed $1.05 before the news, but it actually “reverse split” twice, 1:10 in 2017 and 2018. So, if you owned 100 shares in early 2017 at $20, you’d first go to 10 shares, and then again in 2018 down to 1 share. So, 100 @ $20, or $2000 worth of stock, you’d now have 1 share worth $14.00 at the close today. Talk about destruction of equity! No as bad as some, but not a great return. Caveat Emptor!...in spades. New Group:
AIR & CRUISE LINES were LOWER with CCL -.28, RCL -1.57, NCLH -.28, AAL -.37, DAL -.87, LUV -.53, UAL -.95, HA -.41, ALK -1.17, and XTN $57.50 -.85 (1.46%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN -2.59, BGS -.48, FLO -.23, CPB -.48, CAG -1.29, MDLZ -1.27, KHC -.48, CALM -.01, JJSF +1.40, SAFM -2.89, HRL -.21, SJM -1.67, PPC -.04, KR -.54, and PBJ $31.68 -.63 (1.96%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -.56, ABBV -1.42, REGN -6.32, ISRG -8.61, GILD -.65, MYL -.42, TEVA -.16, VRTX -3.76, BHC -.29, INCY -.96, ICPT -1.64, LABU -5.39, and IBB $132.10 -1.68 (1.25%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.65, CGC -1.43, CRON-.24, GWPH -.85, ACB -2.11 (28%), NBEV -.12, CURLF -.05, KERN -.35, and MJ $10.37 -.70 (6.32%).
DEFENSE was LOWER with LMT -5.18, GD -3.25, TXT -.80, NOC -2.85, BWXT -1.11, TDY -7.71, RTX -1.79, and ITA $156.70 -4.14 (2.57%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with M -.13, JWN -.72, KSS -.71, DDS -1.39, WMT -2.80, TGT -3.88, TJX -1.36, RL -3.03, UAA +.33, LULU -2.60, TPR +.03, CPRI -.50, and XRT $49.28 -1.34 (2.65%).
MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were LOWER with GOOGL -56.82, AMZN -155.99, AAPL -6.21 FB -8.00, NFLX -22.37, NVDA -25.01, TSLA -56.40, BABA -3.39, BIDU -1.11, CMG +23.13, CRM -13.28, BA -6.45, CAT -3.07, DIS -4.21, XLK 109.90 -4.32 (3.79%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -4.22, JPM -1.77, BAC -.72, MS -1.21, C -1.52, PNC -2.86, AIG -.88, TRV -1.76, AXP -2.88, V -5.71, and XLF $23.20 -.53 (2.23%).
OIL, $39.93 +.13, Oil was higher all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider selling it for a correction. The stocks were lower with XLE $30.21 – 1.43 (4.52%).
GOLD $1,868.40 -39.20, opened LOWER but and gave up most of the recent gains and finished well off the low but substantially lower. I have closed out the NEM calls at a loss. I will take another look after I’ve seen some sideways action.
BITCOIN: closed $10,280 -215. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $10.74 -.53 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

KODK is fishy

For Trading JULY 30th
WHERE THE HELL IS STOCKWATCH?
“FED UNCHANGED”
NAT GAS RALLIES
Added UNG calls and MYL calls and sitting on our gold spreads
Today’s market got off to a positive start and then gained all day. The FED announcement and the press conference had absolutely no effect on the market as did the House Judiciary cross examination of the CEOs of AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, and FB. There was nothing new discussed as the congressional questioners got on their soapboxes to mug to the TV cameras. As is usually the case on Fed days, the market just drifted higher and when they got what was expected the market added on to the gains. We also had some economic numbers with pending home sales +16.6%, a lower trade deficit (70.6 vs. 75.3Bil), and a slight decline in mortgage applications. DJIA +160.29 (.61%), NASDAQ +140.85 (1.35%), S&P 500 +40 (1.24%), the Russell +30.87 (2.1%) and the DJ Transports +209 (2.16%). Market internals were positive with NYSE 4:1 and NAZ 2:1, with lighter volume in both. The DJIA was 19 up, 11 down with the biggest winners AAPL +49 and UNH +46 DPs and BA -35 DPs.
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/rQ3eZ4A4gRw
Today’s video on the UNG Trade: https://youtu.be/RBWaSke96O8
Our Discord link is in the video description.
SECTORS: The disgrace of what transpired with KODK should clearly be investigated. A stock whose avg daily volume is 100,000 trades 1.6MM and makes an announcement of major import and trades 260MM and then moves this dramatically deserves a look…A CLOSE LOOK! Then when it moves up 2000% and has to be halted repeatedly for volatility all day and trades in a range of $17.50 TO $60.00. Forget the political side where a major Republican donor is a director and owns 15% of KODK, this kind of action should be investigated. The lack of protection for investors is glaring! If I had bought even 1 of the KODK calls, the SEC would already have called me!!
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +1.27, BGS +.51, FLO +.05, CPB -.03, CAG +.34, MDLZ +.82, KHC +.64, CALM -.23, JJSF -1.31, SAFM +.66, HRL +.28, SJM +1.22, PPC -.39, KR -.12, PBJ $33.70 +.44 (1.3%).
BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB -2.99, ABBV +.34, REGN +1.16, ISRG +16.10, GILD -.59, MYL +.86 (5.32% and we own the calls), TEVA +.32, VRTX +.20, BHC +.25, INCY -2.57, ICPT -.30, LABU -2.51, and IBB $137.00 -1.16 (.84%).
CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.54, CGC -.95, CRON -.25, GWPH +.45, ACB -.87, NBEV +.07, CURLF -.40, KERN +.35, and MJ $13.43 -.32 (2.33%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +.64, GD +.87, TXT +.07, NOC +2.33, BWTX +.22, TDY -.23, RTX -1.60, and ITA $160.27 -1.31 (.81%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.08, JWN +.10, KSS -.16, DDS +.51, WMT -.97, TGT +.11, TJX +.92, RL +1.33, UAA +.37, LULU +3.11, TPR +.36, CPRI +1.24, and XRT $47.84 +1.32 (2.84%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +23.55, AMZN +45.27, AAPL +7.74, FB +3.74, NFLX -3.51, NVDA +11.13, TSLA +25.51, BABA +4.33, BIDU +4.50, CMG +37.87, CAT +2.64, MSFT +2.03, BA -5.44, DIS -.53, and XLK $107.63 +2.02 (1.91%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +1.18, JPM +2.28, BAC +.90, MS +.47, C +1.27, PNC +4.17, AIG +1.85, TRV +1.82, AXP +1.68, V +1.36, and XLF $24.49 +.48 (2%).
OIL, $41.27 +.23. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, that it is a toss-up for a move in either direction. The stocks were HIGHER with XLE $37.68 +.77 (2.09%).
GOLD $1,954.50 +10.10. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,974.00. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market. The spread was put on at $1.30 and finished the day @ $2.47.
BITCOIN: closed $11,240 +205. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $12.41 -.12 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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Snowflake

For Trading September 17th
NASDAQ SELLOFF
SNOWFLAKE SURPRISE
FED DAY LETDOWN
Today’s market started off with another rally and at the highs we were +369 on the DJIA, but as Chairman Powell was talking at his press conference we started to fade and we had a downdraft to +130, and in the last 15 minutes we had another one taking us to just above unchanged to finish within pennies of the low +36.78 (.13%). NASDAQ was -139.85 (1.25%), S&P 500 -15.71 (.46%), the Russell +14.17 (.92%) and the DJ Transports +78.18 (.68%) and made a new all-time high at 11,690.82. Market internals were generally healthy with NYSE 1.6:1 and NASDAQ just slightly lower at 1.5:1, with a 20% increase in volume. The DJIA was split 15:15 with only HD, HD, and AAPL 25DP losers and BA +26, the only gainer of $26 DP’s.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking !!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/rEftfx47Vdc
SECTORS: We started off the day with Retail sales +.6%, a slight disappointment, although the retail sector was mixed to higher. UAA was a big winner on the back of a new line of women’s basketball shoes and finished the day $12.29 +.63 (5.4%). FDX and ADBE went in separate directions even though they both blew away their earnings numbers. FDX helped drive the Transports to a new high today and finished $250.30 +13.63 (5.8%). ADBE went the other way after the stock moved up to $522 +25 in post market trading but when it opened this morning it could only make it to $505.50 and then fell to 478 by 11:00 and worked its way down to close $476, literally only pennies off the low and -21.67 (4.33%), and almost 50 off the extended hours high. Facebook has some problems with the FTC and that weighed on the stock and today several celebrities calling for a 1-day boycott of the social media site. Whatever it was, the stock closed near its low for the day at $263.52 -8.90 (3.3%). GE gave guidance for cash-flow positive during this 2nd half and the market liked it, sending it up 10.7% at $6.75 +.65. There were two IPOs today for cloud-based software. FROG was priced at $4 and the stock opened $71, traded up to $77 before a bit of a selloff to finish $64.33, or 46% over its pricing. SNOWFLAKE grabbed all the attention being offered at $120 after raising the price several times and then opening $240, moving up to 319 before selling off to close $253.93 133.9% above its offering.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN -.04, BGS +,71. FLO +.14, CPB -.09, CAG -.07, MDLZ -.12, KHC -.41, CALM +1.24, JJSF -.12, SAFM -.12, HRL -.36, SJM -2.40, PPC -.04, KR -.58, and PBJ $32.87 -.26 (.78%).
BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB -2.06, ABBV -.82, REGN _10.75, ISRG -24.18, GILD -.65, MYL +.13, TEVA +.13, VRTX +.70, BHC +.64, INCY -1.49, ICPT +.73, LABU+3.74, and IBB $136.70 +.63 (.46%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.42, CGC +.28, CRON +.04, GWPH -1.23, ACB -.05, NBEV +.03, CURLF +.31, KERN +.18, and MJ $11.43 +.07 (.62%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +3.06, GD +1.64, TXT +/.54, NOC +5.48, BWXT +.55, TDY +2.25, RTX +1.81, and ITA $167.67 +3.01 (1.83%).
RETAIL: was MIXED with M +.13, JWN +.36, KSS +.89, DDS -.21, WMT -.48, TGT -.60, TJX +.50, RL +.65, UAA +.63, LULU -4.49, TPR +1.64, CPRI +1.04, XRT M$51.05 +.24 (.47%).
FAANG & MEGA-CAP were LOWER with GOOGL -23.03, AMZN -70.13, AAPL -2.74, FB -8.02, NFLX -10.69, NVDA -15.82, TSLA -5.02, BABA +1.26, BIDU +.63, CRM +.68, CMG -2.92, BA +4.02, CAT +2.63, DIS +1.16, and XLK $114.67 -1.80 (1.55%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +3.19, JPM +.53, BAC +.33, MS +.73, C +1.34, PNC +2.35, AIG +1.16, TRV +1.02, AXP -.68, V -.19, and XLF $24.99 +.28 (1.13%).
OIL, $40.16 +1.88, Oil was higher all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider selling it for a correction. The stocks were higher with XLE $33.94 +1.31 (4.01%).
GOLD $1,970.50 +4.30, opened higher but gave up most of the gains and while it did close up on the day, it was near the lows. I did a short update video Wed: https://youtu.be/KJgk-wmVJ4U I am still a bull on the metal, and we have a September bull call spread on using NEM 65/70 calls with a cost of $1.45, which closed today @ $2.35.
BITCOIN: closed $11,015 + 200. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $12.07 +.12 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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The Next Crypto Wave: The Rise of Stablecoins and its Entry to the U.S. Dollar Market

The Next Crypto Wave: The Rise of Stablecoins and its Entry to the U.S. Dollar Market

Author: Christian Hsieh, CEO of Tokenomy
This paper examines some explanations for the continual global market demand for the U.S. dollar, the rise of stablecoins, and the utility and opportunities that crypto dollars can offer to both the cryptocurrency and traditional markets.
The U.S. dollar, dominant in world trade since the establishment of the 1944 Bretton Woods System, is unequivocally the world’s most demanded reserve currency. Today, more than 61% of foreign bank reserves and nearly 40% of the entire world’s debt is denominated in U.S. dollars1.
However, there is a massive supply and demand imbalance in the U.S. dollar market. On the supply side, central banks throughout the world have implemented more than a decade-long accommodative monetary policy since the 2008 global financial crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated the need for central banks to provide necessary liquidity and keep staggering economies moving. While the Federal Reserve leads the effort of “money printing” and stimulus programs, the current money supply still cannot meet the constant high demand for the U.S. dollar2. Let us review some of the reasons for this constant dollar demand from a few economic fundamentals.

Demand for U.S. Dollars

Firstly, most of the world’s trade is denominated in U.S. dollars. Chief Economist of the IMF, Gita Gopinath, has compiled data reflecting that the U.S. dollar’s share of invoicing was 4.7 times larger than America’s share of the value of imports, and 3.1 times its share of world exports3. The U.S. dollar is the dominant “invoicing currency” in most developing countries4.

https://preview.redd.it/d4xalwdyz8p51.png?width=535&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f0556c6aa6b29016c9b135f3279e8337dfee2a6

https://preview.redd.it/wucg40kzz8p51.png?width=653&format=png&auto=webp&s=71257fec29b43e0fc0df1bf04363717e3b52478f
This U.S. dollar preference also directly impacts the world’s debt. According to the Bank of International Settlements, there is over $67 trillion in U.S. dollar denominated debt globally, and borrowing outside of the U.S. accounted for $12.5 trillion in Q1 20205. There is an immense demand for U.S. dollars every year just to service these dollar debts. The annual U.S. dollar buying demand is easily over $1 trillion assuming the borrowing cost is at 1.5% (1 year LIBOR + 1%) per year, a conservative estimate.

https://preview.redd.it/6956j6f109p51.png?width=487&format=png&auto=webp&s=ccea257a4e9524c11df25737cac961308b542b69
Secondly, since the U.S. has a much stronger economy compared to its global peers, a higher return on investments draws U.S. dollar demand from everywhere in the world, to invest in companies both in the public and private markets. The U.S. hosts the largest stock markets in the world with more than $33 trillion in public market capitalization (combined both NYSE and NASDAQ)6. For the private market, North America’s total share is well over 60% of the $6.5 trillion global assets under management across private equity, real assets, and private debt investments7. The demand for higher quality investments extends to the fixed income market as well. As countries like Japan and Switzerland currently have negative-yielding interest rates8, fixed income investors’ quest for yield in the developed economies leads them back to the U.S. debt market. As of July 2020, there are $15 trillion worth of negative-yielding debt securities globally (see chart). In comparison, the positive, low-yielding U.S. debt remains a sound fixed income strategy for conservative investors in uncertain market conditions.

Source: Bloomberg
Last, but not least, there are many developing economies experiencing failing monetary policies, where hyperinflation has become a real national disaster. A classic example is Venezuela, where the currency Bolivar became practically worthless as the inflation rate skyrocketed to 10,000,000% in 20199. The recent Beirut port explosion in Lebanon caused a sudden economic meltdown and compounded its already troubled financial market, where inflation has soared to over 112% year on year10. For citizens living in unstable regions such as these, the only reliable store of value is the U.S. dollar. According to the Chainalysis 2020 Geography of Cryptocurrency Report, Venezuela has become one of the most active cryptocurrency trading countries11. The demand for cryptocurrency surges as a flight to safety mentality drives Venezuelans to acquire U.S. dollars to preserve savings that they might otherwise lose. The growth for cryptocurrency activities in those regions is fueled by these desperate citizens using cryptocurrencies as rails to access the U.S. dollar, on top of acquiring actual Bitcoin or other underlying crypto assets.

The Rise of Crypto Dollars

Due to the highly volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, USD stablecoin, a crypto-powered blockchain token that pegs its value to the U.S. dollar, was introduced to provide stable dollar exposure in the crypto trading sphere. Tether is the first of its kind. Issued in 2014 on the bitcoin blockchain (Omni layer protocol), under the token symbol USDT, it attempts to provide crypto traders with a stable settlement currency while they trade in and out of various crypto assets. The reason behind the stablecoin creation was to address the inefficient and burdensome aspects of having to move fiat U.S. dollars between the legacy banking system and crypto exchanges. Because one USDT is theoretically backed by one U.S. dollar, traders can use USDT to trade and settle to fiat dollars. It was not until 2017 that the majority of traders seemed to realize Tether’s intended utility and started using it widely. As of April 2019, USDT trading volume started exceeding the trading volume of bitcoina12, and it now dominates the crypto trading sphere with over $50 billion average daily trading volume13.

https://preview.redd.it/3vq7v1jg09p51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=46f11b5f5245a8c335ccc60432873e9bad2eb1e1
An interesting aspect of USDT is that although the claimed 1:1 backing with U.S. dollar collateral is in question, and the Tether company is in reality running fractional reserves through a loose offshore corporate structure, Tether’s trading volume and adoption continues to grow rapidly14. Perhaps in comparison to fiat U.S. dollars, which is not really backed by anything, Tether still has cash equivalents in reserves and crypto traders favor its liquidity and convenience over its lack of legitimacy. For those who are concerned about Tether’s solvency, they can now purchase credit default swaps for downside protection15. On the other hand, USDC, the more compliant contender, takes a distant second spot with total coin circulation of $1.8 billion, versus USDT at $14.5 billion (at the time of publication). It is still too early to tell who is the ultimate leader in the stablecoin arena, as more and more stablecoins are launching to offer various functions and supporting mechanisms. There are three main categories of stablecoin: fiat-backed, crypto-collateralized, and non-collateralized algorithm based stablecoins. Most of these are still at an experimental phase, and readers can learn more about them here. With the continuous innovation of stablecoin development, the utility stablecoins provide in the overall crypto market will become more apparent.

Institutional Developments

In addition to trade settlement, stablecoins can be applied in many other areas. Cross-border payments and remittances is an inefficient market that desperately needs innovation. In 2020, the average cost of sending money across the world is around 7%16, and it takes days to settle. The World Bank aims to reduce remittance fees to 3% by 2030. With the implementation of blockchain technology, this cost could be further reduced close to zero.
J.P. Morgan, the largest bank in the U.S., has created an Interbank Information Network (IIN) with 416 global Institutions to transform the speed of payment flows through its own JPM Coin, another type of crypto dollar17. Although people argue that JPM Coin is not considered a cryptocurrency as it cannot trade openly on a public blockchain, it is by far the largest scale experiment with all the institutional participants trading within the “permissioned” blockchain. It might be more accurate to refer to it as the use of distributed ledger technology (DLT) instead of “blockchain” in this context. Nevertheless, we should keep in mind that as J.P. Morgan currently moves $6 trillion U.S. dollars per day18, the scale of this experiment would create a considerable impact in the international payment and remittance market if it were successful. Potentially the day will come when regulated crypto exchanges become participants of IIN, and the link between public and private crypto assets can be instantly connected, unlocking greater possibilities in blockchain applications.
Many central banks are also in talks about developing their own central bank digital currency (CBDC). Although this idea was not new, the discussion was brought to the forefront due to Facebook’s aggressive Libra project announcement in June 2019 and the public attention that followed. As of July 2020, at least 36 central banks have published some sort of CBDC framework. While each nation has a slightly different motivation behind its currency digitization initiative, ranging from payment safety, transaction efficiency, easy monetary implementation, or financial inclusion, these central banks are committed to deploying a new digital payment infrastructure. When it comes to the technical architectures, research from BIS indicates that most of the current proofs-of-concept tend to be based upon distributed ledger technology (permissioned blockchain)19.

https://preview.redd.it/lgb1f2rw19p51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=040bb0deed0499df6bf08a072fd7c4a442a826a0
These institutional experiments are laying an essential foundation for an improved global payment infrastructure, where instant and frictionless cross-border settlements can take place with minimal costs. Of course, the interoperability of private DLT tokens and public blockchain stablecoins has yet to be explored, but the innovation with both public and private blockchain efforts could eventually merge. This was highlighted recently by the Governor of the Bank of England who stated that “stablecoins and CBDC could sit alongside each other20”. One thing for certain is that crypto dollars (or other fiat-linked digital currencies) are going to play a significant role in our future economy.

Future Opportunities

There is never a dull moment in the crypto sector. The industry narratives constantly shift as innovation continues to evolve. Twelve years since its inception, Bitcoin has evolved from an abstract subject to a familiar concept. Its role as a secured, scarce, decentralized digital store of value has continued to gain acceptance, and it is well on its way to becoming an investable asset class as a portfolio hedge against asset price inflation and fiat currency depreciation. Stablecoins have proven to be useful as proxy dollars in the crypto world, similar to how dollars are essential in the traditional world. It is only a matter of time before stablecoins or private digital tokens dominate the cross-border payments and global remittances industry.
There are no shortages of hypes and experiments that draw new participants into the crypto space, such as smart contracts, new blockchains, ICOs, tokenization of things, or the most recent trends on DeFi tokens. These projects highlight the possibilities for a much more robust digital future, but the market also needs time to test and adopt. A reliable digital payment infrastructure must be built first in order to allow these experiments to flourish.
In this paper we examined the historical background and economic reasons for the U.S. dollar’s dominance in the world, and the probable conclusion is that the demand for U.S. dollars will likely continue, especially in the middle of a global pandemic, accompanied by a worldwide economic slowdown. The current monetary system is far from perfect, but there are no better alternatives for replacement at least in the near term. Incremental improvements are being made in both the public and private sectors, and stablecoins have a definite role to play in both the traditional and the new crypto world.
Thank you.

Reference:
[1] How the US dollar became the world’s reserve currency, Investopedia
[2] The dollar is in high demand, prone to dangerous appreciation, The Economist
[3] Dollar dominance in trade and finance, Gita Gopinath
[4] Global trades dependence on dollars, The Economist & IMF working papers
[5] Total credit to non-bank borrowers by currency of denomination, BIS
[6] Biggest stock exchanges in the world, Business Insider
[7] McKinsey Global Private Market Review 2020, McKinsey & Company
[8] Central banks current interest rates, Global Rates
[9] Venezuela hyperinflation hits 10 million percent, CNBC
[10] Lebanon inflation crisis, Reuters
[11] Venezuela cryptocurrency market, Chainalysis
[12] The most used cryptocurrency isn’t Bitcoin, Bloomberg
[13] Trading volume of all crypto assets, coinmarketcap.com
[14] Tether US dollar peg is no longer credible, Forbes
[15] New crypto derivatives let you bet on (or against) Tether’s solvency, Coindesk
[16] Remittance Price Worldwide, The World Bank
[17] Interbank Information Network, J.P. Morgan
[18] Jamie Dimon interview, CBS News
[19] Rise of the central bank digital currency, BIS
[20] Speech by Andrew Bailey, 3 September 2020, Bank of England
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No Deal

For Trading September 11th
Pennies for JC Penny’s
No Deal, No Rally
Is TIK TOK Still a Deal?
Today’s market started off with a rally that pretty quickly and by 11:00am we had given up the +235 and were down on the day. Around lunchtime we tried again, but it was not to be, and we started lower. At this point we put on another 9/18 QQQ put spread that we took home with a cost of $1.37, and it closed $2.05. If we get what I expect, a move lower tomorrow morning we will probably take the profit. At the close the DJIA was -406.89 (1.45%), NASDAQ -221.97 (2%), S&P 500 -59.77 (1.75%), the Russell -18.73 (1.23%), and the DJ Transports – 66.01 (.59%). The failure of the Republican Covid-19 “deal” didn’t help and with lack of any stimulus plan, or any movement in the right direction the market gave up. The volume wasn’t massive and all it took was a lack of more buyers and we just withered away. The DJIA was 29:1 down with only MCD up with the biggest losers UNH -49, MSFT -39, AMGN -33, HD -29 and AAPL -26DP’s. Market internals were 2:1 down on both NYSE and NASDAQ, volume was a bit heavier than yesterday. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/DK2hmC0GXFk With my guest: Dennis Marlow! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/YMoxPt9TWB8
SECTORS: We started off the day with the news that Simon Property and Brookfield are buying JC Penny for pennies on the dollar. The move has been rumored since last month Simon (SPG) bought Brooks Brothers and Macerich (MAC) brought in groceries. JCP, now JCPNQ, traded last week as low as $ .018 rallied yesterday to $ .3999 and today after the new traded as high as $ .80 before closing $ .342 -.06 (14.5%). Pretty sure someone should look into yesterday’s move! On the earnings front we had RH (formerly Restoration Hardware) had solid numbers last night and it showed when the stock ran up today to close $385.46 +64.38 (20%). Peleton (PTON) also beat and after falling to $87.75 -3.42 in regular hours, it rallied to trade to 98.61 and the last was $96.64 +5.47 (6%). ORCL also beat and it ran from a close of $57.33 to trade 60.60 and is currently $59.15 +2.23 (3.92%). Chewy (CHWY) beat but didn’t fare as well trading $58.19 -3.31 (5.38%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN +2.53, BGS -1.62, FLO -.25, CPB -.27, CAG -.80, MDLZ -.11, KHC -.03, JJSF -2.61, SAFM +5.13, HRL -.95, SJM -2.68, PPC +.68, KR +.02, and PBJ $32.28 -.40 (1.18%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -6.00, ABBV -1.93, REGN – 21.15 (3.7%), ISRG -13.88, GILD -.67, MYL -.17, TEVA -.13, VRTX -6.04, BHC -.41, INCY -3.25, ICPT -2.29, LABU -1.61, and IBB $127.17 -2.19 (1.69%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY +.04, CGC +.09, CRON +.03, GWPH -3.00, ACB -.25, NBEV -.01, CURLF -.08, KERN -.08, and MJ $11.42 -.13 (1.13%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -5.14, GD -3.59, TXT +.01, NOC -9.08, BWXT -1.85, TDY -4.47, RTX +.06, and ITA $160.04 -2.38 (1.47%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with M -.14, JWN -.35, KSS -.14, DDS -.64, WMT -2.79, TGT +.44, TJX -.65, RL +2.24, UAA +.18, LULU -2.68, TPR +1.32, CPRI +2.44, and XRT $50.44 -.61 (1.19%).
FAANG & MEGA-CAP were LOWER with GOOGL -19.37, AMZN -77.61, AAPL -3.22, FB -4.31, NFLX -18.09, NVDA -12.60, BABA -4.50, BIDU -.24, CRM -1.18, CMG -1.12, BA -1.98, CAT 2.79, DIS +.59, and XLK $114.36 -2.10 (1.8%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -1.87, JPM -.87, BAC -.35, MS -.73, C -.44, PNC -1.69, AIG -.80, TRV -1.83, AXP -1.01, V -2.35, and XLF $24.54 -.35 (1.41%).
OIL, $37.30 -.75, Oil was quiet and drifted all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider buying it for a bounce. Nat Gas was unchanged at $2.323 - .083 and closed a gap left on the upside that occurred when we were long last month. I was looking at UNG (NG ETF) as a proxy to get long and we bought the UNG 10/16 $14 calls @ $ .57 and they closed $ .46 today.
GOLD $1,964.30 +9.40 sold off early but didn’t break below the $1910 area I am using as support. It turned back and rallied and closed right near the highs. I did a short update video Wed: https://youtu.be/KJgk-wmVJ4U I am still a bull on the metal, and we have a September bull call spread on using NEM 65/70 calls with a cost of $1.45, which closed today @ $2.11, and we also added some October 70’s at $1.65 but sold them today @ $2.50 for a gain as the market was falling.
BITCOIN: closed $10,315 -5. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.38 - .14 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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Profit Taking Tuesday

For Trading September 9th
PROFIT TAKING CONTINUES!
TSLA BIGGEST DECLINE
Today’s market started with the news that Mr. Trump got up early in order to continue to poke the Chinese Bear (they borrowed one from Putin, the thug) on the possibility that we would ban cotton imports and possibly blacklist another of their chip makers. Probably not going to get any traction, but you have to think that as well as AAPL and TSLA have navigated the issues surrounding their business in China, it could easily be put in jeopardy at any time. So, between that item, and the fact that the “BIG 6” wasn’t quite finished working off the run that it seems Softbank got started over the last month or so, we followed the leaders lower, rallied a bit until 3:00 and then sold off to make a new low and close -632.42 (2.25%), NASDAQ -465.45 (4.11%), S&P 500 -95.12 (2.78%), the Russell -30.71 (2%), and the best performer, DJ Transports -145 (1.29%). Market internals were soft with NYSE 3:1 lower with 3:1 down volume while NASDAQ was just over 2:1 lower. The DJIA was 26:4 lower with the biggest losers CRM -89, BA-66, GS & AAPL -56, and the biggest gainer was DIS +14 DP’s.
Tomorrow we have JOLTS (job openings) and mortgage applications to contend with. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TODAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/DK2hmC0GXFk With my guest: Dennis Marlow! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/sZBKCQBEgm8
SECTORS: We started off the day with some Merger Monday action between Nikola and GM. GM taking a $2Billion stake in NKLA and NKLA planning to utilize the GM factories to build their “prospective” pickup truck. Both stocks were higher with NKLA gapping up to open $46.00 and trading as high as $54.56 and closing $50.05 +14.50 (40%), while GM opened $31.55, trading $33.33 and closing $32.38 +2.38 (7.93%). LULU posted solid earning growth and a beat on both earnings and revenues, but it just wasn’t enough as the stock which closed $349.80 -11.61 but then fell to $324 and is currently $329.50 -31.91 (8.83%). We also had a beat on both top and bottom lines at SLACK (WORK) but it too was short on guidance and “billings” and they took it out and shot it. It had closed $29.32 +.25 but fell as low as $23.27 and is now $23.85 -5.21 (18%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN -.85, BGS -1.89, FLO -.52, CPB -2.36, CAG -1.98, MDLZ -1.87, KHC -1.87, CALM -.03, JJSF -2.33, SAFM -1.26, HRL -.83, SJM -3.40, PPC -.23, KR -.83 and PBJ $33.06 -.95 (2.78%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -7.82, ABBV -2.24, REGN -17.31, ISRG -41.25 the biggest loser (5.61%), GILD -1.87, MYL .17, TEVA -.34, VRTX -7.89, BHC -.16, INCY -.76, ICPT -1.16, LABU -2.56, and IBB $126.10 -3.18 (2.45%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.37, CGC -.64, CRON -.15, GWPH +1.59, ACB -.88, NBEV -.10, CURLF +.01, KERN -.10, and MJ $11.31 -.80 (6.61%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -5.95, GD -4.74, TXT -.67, NOC -4.03, BWXT -1.32, TDY -5.18, RTX -2.02, and ITA $162.00 -4.64 (2.78%).
RETAIL: was MIXED with M -.6, JWN -.19, KSS -.15, DDS +1.11, WMT -4.77, TGT -5.03, TJX -.18, RL -.59, UAA +.31, LULU -32.41 (SEE ABOVE), TPR +.44, CPRI +.34 and XRT $50.18 -.74 (1.45%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -64.42, AMZN -161.31, AAPL -8.64, FB -12.93, NFLX -8.06, NVDA -29.58, BABA 11.89, BIDU -4.54, CRM - 13.60, CMG -15.73, BA -10.62, CAT -.49, DIS +.01, and XLK 112.51 -5.61 (4.75%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with interest rates and GS -9.84, JPM -3.97, BAC -1.19, MS -2.89, C -1.75, PNC -4.59, AIG -.91, TRV -2.57, AXP -2.67, V -5.15, and XLF $24.54 -.75 (2.97%).
OIL, $36.76 – 3.01. Oil was lower in today’s trading and drifted lower all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider buying it for a bounce. Nat Gas was - $ .19 to $2.40 and closed a gap left on the upside that occurred when we were long last month, and I am looking at UNG (NG ETF) as a proxy to get long.
GOLD $1,943.20 +8.90, sold off early but didn’t break below the $1905 area I am using as support. It turned back and rallied and closed right near the highs. I did a short update video today: https://youtu.be/KJgk-wmVJ4U I am still a bull on the metal, and we have a September bull call spread on using NEM 65/70 calls with a cost of $1.45, which closed today @ $1.91, and we also added some October 70’s at $1.65 which closed $2.08.
BITCOIN: closed $10,015 -605. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.11 -.90 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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For Trading September 16th

D.O.J. Joins the Inquiry on Nikola
FDX & ADBE BEAT
IPOB GETS A COMPANY
Today’s market started off with another rally but got tired and the DJIA barely stayed positive on the day. After dipping into the red, the DJIA managed to close +2.27 (.04%) while the NASDAQ ran the show finishing +133.67 (1.21%), S&P 500 +17.66 (.52%), the Russell +1.18, and the DJ Transports +96.12 (.84%). Internals were barely positive at 1.2:1 on both NYSE and NASDAQ with average volume. The DJIA was split 16 up, 12 down with 2, (MRK and PG) unchanged. The biggest winners were HD and CRM both adding 33 DP’s and the losers, CAT -32, PG and GS both lower by 22 DPs.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/DK2hmC0GXFk With my guest: Dennis Marlow!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/OitvPWK2_mg
SECTORS: We started off the day with both Import and Export prices coming in slightly hotter than projected, Empire State manufacturing gaining 17% vs. 5.9 expected and industrial production missing on the downside at +.4% from a 1% expectations, and capacity utilization increasing to 71.4% just under the 71.7% estimate.
One of our holdings, IPOB.U, Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings, a SPAC run by Chamath Palihapitiya (also did the deal for Virgin Galactic) is taking OpenDoor into its structure and it was a big hit, having closed $14.19 and opening @ $17.24, trading as high as $19.75 before closing $19.14 +4.95 (34.88%). We’ll see how the public likes the deal as things develop, but Palihapitiya has an excellent reputation for building value. After the close we had earnings from FDX and ADBE and both beat both earnings and revenues and were rewarded. ADBE had closed $497.67 +11.76 traded up to $522 and was $508.50 +22.59; FDX closed $236.67 +.33 and traded up to $260.33 before finishing $257 +20.63.
Nikola attracted a bit more unwelcome attention with the AG in New York and the D.O.J. both joining the SEC in their inquiry of the company’s claims made to investors and the public about where they were in the development of their Hydrogen fuel cell driven trucks. The stock, which traded as high as $93.99 fell back to under $30 and rallied up to $54.56 just last week on statements from its founder and a deal with General Motors. This was before 2 research reports calling into question the validity of claims made and the SEC investigation pressured the stock lower. It closed $30.78 -5.01 (14%) today.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN -.31, BGS -.74, FLO unch., CPB -.30, CAG -.02, MDLZ +.08, KHC +.46, CALM -.13, SAFM -.02, HRL -.44, SJM -1.06, PPC +.06, KR -.09, and PBJ $33.13 -.18 (.54%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +2.03, ABBV +.61, REGN +14.33, ISRG -.77, GILD -.14, MYL +.34, TEVA +.07, VRTX +2.43, BHC +.35, INCY -1.06, ICPT -.17, LABU +1.67, and IBB $136.07 +1.36 (1.01%). CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY +.02, CGC -.01, CRON -.02, GWPH +1.46, ACB -.08, NBEV -.04, CURLF +.10, KERN -.06 and MJ $11.36 +.06 (.53%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -1.20, GD -2.33, TXT -.26, NOC -.43, BWXT -.24, TDY -2.18, RTX -.59, and ITA $164.66 -1.19 (.72%).
RETAIL: was MIXED with M -.25, JWN -.30, KSS -.17, DDS -.29, WMT +.81, TGT +.91, TJX +1.51, RL +.03, UAA -.08, LULU +2.18, TPR -.47, CPRI +2.00, and XRT $50.90 -.04 (.08%).
FAANG & MEGA-CAP were HIGHER with GOOGL +20.96, AMZN +54.16, AAPL -.50, FB -2.08, NFLX +21.26, NVDA +5.21, TSLA +29.93, BABA +4.49, BIDU +2.61, CRM +5.56, CMG +10.17, BA -1.75, CAT -4.01, DIS +.17, and XLK $116.50 +1.17 (1.01%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -2.94, JPM -2.96, BAC -.47, MS -.70, C -3.12, PNC -3.43, AIG -.42, TRV -2.31, AXP -.59, V +.52, and XLF $24.72 -.33 (1.32%).
OIL, $38.28 +1.02, Oil was quiet and drifted all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider buying it for a bounce. The stocks were mixed with XLE $32.68 -.19 (.58%).
GOLD $1,966.20 +2.50 opened higher but gave up most of the gains and while it did close up on the day, it was near the lows. I did a short update video Wed: https://youtu.be/KJgk-wmVJ4U I am still a bull on the metal, and we have a September bull call spread on using NEM 65/70 calls with a cost of $1.45, which closed today @ $2.36.
BITCOIN: closed $10,815 +110. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.95 +.10 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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How to Day Trade Using Volume  Tradingsim.com - YouTube How to Day Trade Using Volume Charts - YouTube Bitcoin Volume Signal? Yesterday's Swing Trading Setups Reviewed - BTCUSD + Crypto Live Bitcoin Chart Liquidation Watch: August 9 2020 - YouTube Trading with the Volume Profile (Advanced)

Volume Leaders lists the stocks with the greatest volume for the day. What's Included. For U.S. Markets: The initial page displayed is for "All US Exchanges" (includes only NYSE, NYSE Arca and NASDAQ stocks, and does not include ETFs, unit investment trusts, closed end funds, warrant stocks, preferred securities and any non-SIC classified stock). Bitcoin price today is $13,073.32 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $23,603,626,066 USD. Bitcoin is up 0.48% in the last 24 hours. The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #1, with a market cap of $242,210,721,011 USD. It has a circulating supply of 18,527,100 BTC coins and a max. supply of 21,000,000 BTC coins. You can find the top exchanges to trade Bitcoin listed on our crypto exchanges page ... Trading Volume. Daily bitcoin trading volume and market dominance. Volume reflects a 24-hour period of time. Dominance is a measure of bitcoin volume versus the entire cryptocurrency market. Historical volume goes back to 2013. Unit: US Dollars, Percent of Total Volume. Source: CoinMarketCap.com. Learn More Bitcoin Stocks List Chart Patterns. The stock market is essentially a tug of war between buyers and sellers known as bulls and bears. The fight to gain control forms candlesticks. Candlesticks by themselves tell a story. However, group them together and you get patterns. Watch us do live trading each day in our trade rooms. Those patterns are a guide on whether or not the stock should move up ... View live Bitcoin CME Futures chart to track latest price changes. Trade ideas, forecasts and market news are at your disposal as well.

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How to Day Trade Using Volume Tradingsim.com - YouTube

Price and volume are the two most important areas to look at when learning how to read stock charts, whether you're buying or selling. Here's how you can pie... This video gives two main ways in trading based off of volume information. Volume is a fantastic indicator (potentially the most helpful) for trading any typ... See how volume can help avoid the pitfalls of false breakouts. Learn the 3 simple signals that can keep you on the right side of the market. To learn more ab... Simple Method for Trading the Volume Profile: 0:53 ... 8 videos Play all Volume Profile Bitcoin Trading ... and VPSR Analysis. Stocks, Crypto, Forex. - Duration: 50:06. DejaBrewTrading 35,320 ... In trading, you often hear a lot about volume. It's one of the most important things you should track. Price is always first, but volume is a close second. T...

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